BAILOUT...ONE WAY OR THE OTHER

No surprises there. Senate says no, Bush may tap into TARP funds. Fact of the matter is there is NO way this bailout is not going to happen. Is it the smart thing to do? Probably not, but that is really not the point. Obama more or less took office (well...not really) on promises of major economic stimulus. Wall Street first, then Main Street. Obviously GM, FORD and the likes are making cars no one outside (or inside...) the US wants to buy. Environment becoming such a factor these days it cannot be ignored. The plunge in Stock prices on the back of the Senate vote was a sure "buy on dips", since the outcome of this squabble is a given. Across the pond stock recovered with Bush statement as a trigger, but I am pretty sure stocks would have recovered anyway once people realized the vote is just republicans using the only real power they have left. The rescue bill will pass with or without TARP funds. In Sweden another telecom profit warning, this time ALU FP (Alcatel-Lucent), sent ERICSSON down. If anyone besides my wife reads this blog, this will come as no surprise. What is remarkable though, is ERICSSON IR stating they still see a flattish market 09. Granted, they look at different segments of the market and have limited exposure to fixed line, but still. The stock traded down to 57 lows before rallying a bit with the rest of the market. Two days ago it was at 66 and change. How about that for volatility? Timing the bets is really key in this environment. Banks still suffering with SHB SS NDA SS as main loosers. SWEDA SS still trading at or around the strike of 48 SEK. Folksam, AMF, AFA having major incentives of keeping it above the strike to limit their obligation in the stock issue. Baltics still a major factor and it seems everyone with the slightest interest is going out of their way to downplay what will acctually happen if and when currencies devalue. SEB going as far as to say it may be a good thing compared to alternative scenarios. I smell a rat. No real opinion on the market fropm here. Most likely it will rally into the new year, but no real conviction. I´ll get back on that one.