lördag 22 november 2008

EARNINGS

By the way, profit warnings are unusually frequent. Companys that haven´t already slashed projections for Q4 and 09 are likely to do so within the coming weeks. October and November have taken almost every company by surprise, although the signs was pretty obvious. CEOs and management are lousy forecasters, that is a given and that is also the reason analysts exists. The latter aren´t any good either, but at least you get a different perspective. A company that is going to run into some bad luck is ERICSSON (ERICB SS). They are planning for a flatish market 09, at worst. Seeing what operators are doing to CAPEX that is just not going to happen. Every operator is bringing in the Chinese to put pressure on prices. Chinese operators are under political pressure to award chines equipment companys such as Huawei and ZTE. Flatish, I think not, at least not for ERICSSON. Since they have a crappy cellphone portfolio in their JV with SONY, there is no doubt they will loose even more marketshare on handsets as well. As far as the stock price goes, it could very well rally up to 55 from recent lows, but everything near that price is a SELL.

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